There’s terrible news for President Biden and Donald Trump in the Aug. 30 Wall Street Journal poll. It found only 39% of voters had a favorable opinion and 58% had an unfavorable opinion of each.
The poll is particularly brutal for Mr. Biden. When asked if he is “mentally up for the job of president,” 60% said no, 36% yes, and by an overwhelming margin—73% to 22%—they think Mr. Biden “is too old to run for president.”
These numbers won’t get better as the 2024 election approaches. Campaign wizardry can make up for some candidate shortcomings, but no political magic can hide this president’s age, declining verbal skills and increasing frailty.
Mr. Biden is vulnerable on policy grounds too. Only 30% approve of his handling of “securing the border.” On “inflation and rising costs,” he clocks in at 34% approval. Voters give Mr. Biden 36% for “growing the middle class” and “dealing with China,” 37% on “the economy,” and 39% on “handling Social Security and Medicare.”
Mr. Biden’s brain trust may believe those numbers will improve significantly next year. Perhaps, but it’s hardly guaranteed. Team Biden may also think Mr. Trump has so many negatives that a scorched-earth campaign against him will leave Mr. Biden the lesser of evils. On paper that could work. After all, Mr. Trump is thought to be corrupt by 58% of voters while 57% believe he isn’t honest.
Moreover, a majority of voters already believe three of Mr. Trump’s indictments are legitimate—56% for “allegedly taking classified documents” and obstructing government efforts to retrieve them, 55% for “allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 election” on Jan. 6, 2021, and 55% for allegedly trying to reverse his Georgia loss. These numbers won’t likely improve for Mr. Trump as his lawyers battle in courtrooms next year.
Republicans can’t afford this. Mr. Trump lost in 2020 with 94% GOP support. That between 21% to 26% of Republicans think these indictments are legitimate suggests bigger GOP defections in 2024.
Yet even with all this, the Journal poll, like other recent surveys, had Messrs. Trump and Biden in a dead heat—46% to 46% in a two-way contest and 40% Trump to 39% Biden when the Green and Libertarian candidates are added.
And there’s a significant contest over whether Republicans should field a different standard-bearer than Mr. Trump. Democrats should seriously consider doing the same with Mr. Biden.
There are risks to trying to replace an incumbent. Jimmy Carter was similarly plagued in 1979—the economy was horrible, the Soviets were on the move around the globe, and voters thought he was weak and overwhelmed by events. But the primary challenge by Sen. Edward Kennedy flopped. Unable even to provide a rationale for his candidacy, the Massachusetts Democrat fell to Mr. Carter and weakened the president’s chances against Ronald Reagan.
There’s terrible news for President Biden and Donald Trump in the Aug. 30 Wall Street Journal poll. It found only 39% of voters had a favorable opinion and 58% had an unfavorable opinion of each.
The poll is particularly brutal for Mr. Biden. When asked if he is “mentally up for the job of president,” 60% said no, 36% yes, and by an overwhelming margin—73% to 22%—they think Mr. Biden “is too old to run for president.”
These numbers won’t get better as the 2024 election approaches. Campaign wizardry can make up for some candidate shortcomings, but no political magic can hide this president’s age, declining verbal skills and increasing frailty.
