Polling News

Who Got It Right | Final Polls

November 10, 2022

Over the course of the final seven days of the 2022 midterms, Real Clear Politics tracked 203 individual polling results, with some coming far closer than others.

WHY IT MATTERS: Polling drives much of the press narrative before Election Day while giving campaigns a snapshot of where they stand.  The accuracy varies on each pollster’s methods and sampling.

Where was it right? Polling in Georgia released the day before the election by East Carolina University called both the Senate and Governor races correctly, predicting a 53%-46% win for Gov. Brian Kemp and predicting Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Hershel Walker would go to a runoff tied at 49% each.

In North Carolina, polling released that same day by The Hill/Emerson showed Rep. Ted Budd winning with 51%. His vote now stands at 50.7%. Ohio polling from Emerson Friday before the election showed J.D. Vance winning with 53%, another accurate measure. Another good call on Wednesday, Nov. 2, showed Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson winning with 50% over Democrat Mandela Barnes at 48%; although Barnes finished 1.5% higher.

Where was it wrong? On two separate days, Democratic pollster Data for Progress and Republican firm Trafalgar Group each released polls showing Wisconsin Republican Tim Michels winning 50%-48% over Gov. Tony Evers. Trafalgar also predicted a narrow loss for Republican Joe O’Dea to Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet: the race ended up almost 12% in Bennet’s favor. St. Anselm College’s Institute of Politics polling showed losses for both New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (-1) and Rep. Chris Pappas (-6). The Senate race ended as a 9-point win for Hassan, while the Congressional race ended as a 7-point win for Pappas.

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
July 24, 2025 |
Polling News
Over the opening months of his new term, President Donald Trump enjoyed rave reviews on key issues from the 2024 campaign like immigration and inflation. ...
Placeholder polling news
July 17, 2025 |
Polling News
News organizations were quick to declare a “MAGA divorce” following the Justice Departments released memo on the Epstein files, but what does the data say? It’s not so clear cut, according to a new CNN poll. ...
Placeholder polling news
July 10, 2025 |
Polling News
Pew Research Center recently released its analysis of the 2024 Presidential Election. ...
Placeholder polling news
July 03, 2025 |
Polling News
Recent data from Gallup shows Americas are not just divided on policy positions and personalities, but on their feelings of patriotism, too.  ...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance