Polling News

Most Vulnerable Senators One Year From Re-Election

November 02, 2017

A Morning Consult second quarter poll (July-September) finds only three vulnerable senators up for re-election have approval ratings higher than 50% one year out from next year’s midterms.  Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV), Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), and Jon Tester (D-MT) have approval ratings of 53%, 55%, and 53%, respectively.  That puts their net approval ratings at 17%, 23%, and 20%, respectively.  Senators Manchin and Heitkamp saw a slide of nine net points since their first quarter ratings (January-June).  Senator Tester saw a bump of nine net points.

The other nine Senators – Robert Menendez (D-NJ), Dean Heller (R-NV), Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Bob Casey (D-PA), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Joe Donnelly (D-IN), and Bill Nelson (D-FL) – all have approval ratings below 50%.  Their net approval ratings are -9%, 0%, 3%, 3%, 9%, 11%, 19%, 21%, and 24%, respectively.  Sen. Stabenow is the only one in this group who has not seen a negative shift in net approval rating since the first quarter.  Senators Menendez (-10), Heller (-8), Donnelly (-7), and McCaskill (-5) saw the largest shifts in this group.

Considering the downward slide most incumbent Democrats are suffering, the right Republican candidates, messages, and campaigns have a real shot at picking up seats twelve months from now.

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