President Donald Trump had a clear Electoral College victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, and a slight edge in the national popular vote (at 1.5 points today). While the popular vote margin is not large, FiveThirtyEight.com points out that the shift to the right nationwide was the largest shift towards any party since 2008.
By The Numbers:
Trump’s 1.5 percent victory today is a 5.9-point shift to the right from 2020, when President Joe Biden defeated Trump by 4.5 points. This shift wasn’t just in every state, but in over 3,000 counties across the country as well. More than 9 in 10 voters live in a county that swung right this election.
The last similar shift was in 2008, when the country shifted 9.7 points to the left when Obama was elected. In 2000, there was an eight-point shift to the right when George W. Bush was elected. In 1992, the leftward shift with Clinton was 13.3 points; in 1984, it was 8.5 points to the right with Reagan; in 1980, it was 11.8 points to the right with Reagan; and in 1976, it was 25.2 points to the left with Carter.
The only election where the country swung a different direction than the White House victor was in 1988, when the country swung 10.5 points to the left despite George H.W. Bush winning the White House.
The Bottom Line: Every single state shifted to the right in November, something that had not happened since 1976, when every single state shifted left. Fivethirtyeight.com notes that 1976 was a return to the mean, however, considering Carter’s win was four years after Nixon’s 1972 landslide. Overall, these shifts at such a granular, county level should set off alarm bells in Democratic offices. Not only was this election an endorsement of President Trump and his policies, but it was also a dramatic repudiation of the Democrat Party. If Democrats cannot figure out a way forward in the next twelve months, they’ll be setting themselves up for disappointment in the 2026 Midterms as well.
