Polling News

Who Is A Better Closer Among The Republican Presidential Candidates?

February 25, 2016

Primary exit polls (or entrance polls in the case of caucuses) can shed light on who does better in gaining support in the last few days or the final week of a contest.

Both exit and entrance polls ask when the voters made up their minds.  Among the options offered voters are “last few days,” “last week” and “last month.”  Here’s the pattern for the remaining significant candidates among voters who said they made up their mind in the “last few days” or “last week” (which includes “last few days” respondents).

Florida Sen. Marco was the better closer in Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada, and in New Hampshire, Donald Trump was.  This was important since so many Republicans made up their minds late.  Nearly half the voters in New Hampshire made up their mind in the last few days and nearly half in Iowa and South Carolina decided in the last week.  Nevada featured the smallest number of late deciders: three of ten voters decided in the last week.

                                    Share   Cruz   Rubio  Trump
Last Few Days            35%     25%     30%    14%
Last Week                   45%     27%     29%    14%

Last Few Days            47        12        12        24
Last Week                   53        12        12        24

Last Few Days            39        26        27        17
Last Week                   46        26        28        17       

Last Few Days           23        27        36        24
Last Week                  30        24        39        26

Among lesser candidates, there were only sporadic instances of receiving 10% of more of late deciders.  Bush drew 10% of them in both New Hampshire and South Carolina; Carson drew 10% in Iowa; and Kasich drew 21% in New Hampshire and 12% in South Carolina.  Only Kasich’s 21% in New Hampshire proved to be significant, helping vaunt him to 15.5% in the primary and a second-place finish.



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