Primary exit polls (or entrance polls in the case of caucuses) can shed light on who does better in gaining support in the last few days or the final week of a contest.
Both exit and entrance polls ask when the voters made up their minds. Among the options offered voters are “last few days,” “last week” and “last month.” Here’s the pattern for the remaining significant candidates among voters who said they made up their mind in the “last few days” or “last week” (which includes “last few days” respondents).
Florida Sen. Marco was the better closer in Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada, and in New Hampshire, Donald Trump was. This was important since so many Republicans made up their minds late. Nearly half the voters in New Hampshire made up their mind in the last few days and nearly half in Iowa and South Carolina decided in the last week. Nevada featured the smallest number of late deciders: three of ten voters decided in the last week.
Share Cruz Rubio Trump
Iowa
Last Few Days 35% 25% 30% 14%
Last Week 45% 27% 29% 14%
NH
Last Few Days 47 12 12 24
Last Week 53 12 12 24
SC
Last Few Days 39 26 27 17
Last Week 46 26 28 17
NV
Last Few Days 23 27 36 24
Last Week 30 24 39 26
Among lesser candidates, there were only sporadic instances of receiving 10% of more of late deciders. Bush drew 10% of them in both New Hampshire and South Carolina; Carson drew 10% in Iowa; and Kasich drew 21% in New Hampshire and 12% in South Carolina. Only Kasich’s 21% in New Hampshire proved to be significant, helping vaunt him to 15.5% in the primary and a second-place finish.
