While observers saw a “red wave” growing towards Election Day 2022, it turns out that most polling was historically accurate, according to a FiveThirtyEight.com analysis. Going back to 1998, it turns out pollsters have been right about 78% of the time.
Why It Matters: Many voters, pundits, and politicos express consternation with polling, both past and present. FiveThirtyEight.com’s analysis, however, shows that overall, measurements have been generally closer to being accurate more often than not.
By The Numbers:
The Bottom Line: As polling outlets adapt to changing ranges of communication – texting, IVR, cellphones versus landlines, canvass survey gathering, and web collection, to name a few, the margin of error generally stays within a reason range. That’s not to say some polls were wildly off the mark, some consistently so. To get an accurate read of the state of a race, look closely at the trend, especially on underlying factors like favorability, approval and likeliness to vote.