Polling News

Major Factors In Votes Compared to Trump Conviction

June 13, 2024

Initial reports Last week showed the Trump verdict didn’t cost the former president votes, but some surveys found that it persuaded undecided voters to lean to Biden. Now a new CBS News/YouGov pollfinds the verdict is less important than other issues as voters weigh their decision.

By The Numbers:

  • Eighty-one percent of likely voters said the economy was a major factor affecting their vote, compared to 75% who said inflation, 74% the state of democracy, 62% crime, 56% the border, and 52% gun policy.

  • That compares to 28% who said Trump’s conviction would be a “major factor” in their vote, 17% who said it’d be a “minor factor” in their vote, and 55% who said it would “not be a factor” at all. 

  • Among likely Trump voters, 14% said they’ll now show up to support for Trump post-conviction; 15% said they’ll show up “despite his conviction,” and 71% said it wasn’t a factor.

  • More Biden voters, however, are now showing up to oppose Trump, not support Biden. Fifty-four percent of likely Biden voters say they’ll vote to “oppose Trump,” compared to 27% who’d show up because they like Biden and 19% because he’s the Democrat nominee. 

The Bottom Line: While Democrats did backflips celebrating the New York court’s decision, data shows they don’t yet have reason to celebrate. If someone was already voting for Trump, they’re likely doubling down. If they were undecided, however, there are many other issues they prioritize over the conviction–and Trump has better approval ratings on each of them that does Biden. 

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