Polling News

Can We Tell Which States Will Be Swing States In November?

June 18, 2020

Is it too early to predict which states will decide the 2020 Presidential Election? Fivethirtyeight.com examined the Cook Political Report’s June predictions for the last four presidential elections to see how accurate they were five months out from the election. The picks were mixed.

In June 2004, Cook correctly predicted IA, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, and WI would be toss-ups, incorrectly rated FL and MO as toss-ups, and missed CO, MI, OR, and PA, which ended closer than thought. In June 2008, Cook correctly rated OH as a toss-up, incorrectly rated CO, IA, MI, NV, and PA as toss-ups, and missed FL, IN, MO, MT, and NC. In June 2012, Cook correctly rated FL, NC, OH, and VA and incorrectly rated CO, IA, NH, NV, and PA. Finally, in June 2016, Cook correctly pegged NC and NH as toss-ups, while they incorrectly rated IA and OH, and missed AZ, CO, FL, ME, MI, MN, NV, PA, and WI.

Today, most observers offer a very narrow list, mainly Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and sometimes Arizona, as being 2020’s deciders. But as Cook’s track record shows, states not on the radar now could very well be the decider states come November. 

 

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
July 09, 2020 |
Polling News
Despite the growth in isolationist sentiments in recent years, Americans still believe the United States should play a leading role in world affairs. ...
Placeholder polling news
July 02, 2020 |
Polling News
Americans have been unhappy with the country’s direction for some time, according to recent polls. ...
Placeholder polling news
June 25, 2020 |
Polling News
While the total number of voters who vote by mail is relatively small overall, it has increased steadily over the last six presidential elections, according to data compiled by Pew Research Center. ...
Placeholder polling news
June 11, 2020 |
Polling News
The latest numbers from Gallup News show satisfaction with the direction of the U.S. is at the lowest it has been in the past four years (20%). ...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance