Polling News

The 2024 “Deciders”

June 20, 2024

According to a Washington Post-Schar School poll, 61% of voters in six key swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) are “Decider” voters. “Deciders” fit one or more categories: They voted in only one of the last two presidential elections; are between ages 18 and 25; registered to vote for the first time since 2022; do not definitely plan to vote for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump; or switched their presidential preference between 2016 and 2020. 

By The Numbers:

  • Of the “Deciders,” 33% are “sporadic” voters and 44% are “uncommitted about Biden or Trump.” Seventeen percent are both. 

  • Thirty-nine percent of voters in the six battleground states are “non-deciders,” or reliable voters who have a presidential preference. Of these voters, 15% support Biden, 17% support Trump, and 6% are unlikely to vote. Forty-seven percent of voters approve of Trump, 34% approve of Biden. 

  • Among the 44% of “Deciders” who are uncommitted today, 13% are “probably Biden” and 15% “probably Trump” with the remaining 17% are for “other” or truly uncommitted to anyone yet. 

The Bottom Line: The “Deciders” are decidedly worn out already by this election and twists and turns. That said, there are a lot of factors that’ll play a role in whether they turn out in November. Some are issues like the economy, crime, and immigration. These may motivate these voters to become engaged in the states where it matters the most. While Trump has a slight advantage with his base versus Biden with his, appealing to these “Deciders” will be key and make the difference in November. 

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