Polling News

Weak Signs Of A “Blue Wave”

June 28, 2018

Now, 56% of Americans say they are “absolutely certain to vote” in November’s Midterm, according to recent Gallup polling.  Self-identified Republicans have a very small edge, with 65% saying they are “absolutely certain to vote” compared to Democrats’ 64%.  Only 45% of Independents say they are certainly going to vote in November.

More interesting is Gallup’s finding that only 23% of registered voters say their 2018 vote will be “in order to send a message that they oppose the president.”  That’s the lowest opposition number on that question this century.  By comparison 20% say they will vote to send a message to support the president.  This is higher than 18% who said that in 2006 with President George W. Bush and 17% who said that in 2014 with President Barack Obama.  A majority of voters, however, say they “will not be sending a message about the president with their vote.” 

This runs counter to the narrative that 2018 will be a “blue wave election.”  Looking back at the last four Midterms, there were more voters motivated to send a message to the sitting president in all but one.  In Spring 2014, 30% of voters said they were going to vote to send a message of opposition to Mr. Obama.  Democrats then lost 13 House seats and 9 Senate seats.  In October 2010, 30% of voters said they were voting to send a message of opposition to the president, and Democrats lost 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats.  In November 2006, 31% of voters said they were voting to send message of opposition to Mr. Bush, and Republicans lost 30 House seats and 6 Senate seats.  When Republicans gained 8 House seats and 2 Senate seats in 2002, only 15% of voters that October said they would be voting to send a message of opposition to Mr. Bush.

Democrats have yet to find a unifying coherent message other than their hatred for President Trump.  These numbers show that message is not taking hold nor is it motivating their voters as they intend.

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
September 22, 2022 |
Polling News
The 2022 Midterms are close and while Democrats and the Biden Administration try making their case to voters, recent polling from NBC News shows Republicans have a clear edge when it comes to key issues in this election.  ...
Placeholder polling news
September 15, 2022 |
Polling News
Inflation remains a top issue in the Midterm Elections as campaigns enter the post-Labor Day sprint. ...
Placeholder polling news
September 08, 2022 |
Polling News
After over a year of inflation driving up the overall cost of living, a new survey from Gallup shows a significant majority of Americans, including many at middle- and upper-income levels, are experiencing financial hardship. ...
Placeholder polling news
September 01, 2022 |
Polling News
Following a summer of low approval ratings, President Joe Biden’s approval numbers have slightly improved. ...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance