Polling News

Weak Signs Of A “Blue Wave”

June 28, 2018

Now, 56% of Americans say they are “absolutely certain to vote” in November’s Midterm, according to recent Gallup polling.  Self-identified Republicans have a very small edge, with 65% saying they are “absolutely certain to vote” compared to Democrats’ 64%.  Only 45% of Independents say they are certainly going to vote in November.

More interesting is Gallup’s finding that only 23% of registered voters say their 2018 vote will be “in order to send a message that they oppose the president.”  That’s the lowest opposition number on that question this century.  By comparison 20% say they will vote to send a message to support the president.  This is higher than 18% who said that in 2006 with President George W. Bush and 17% who said that in 2014 with President Barack Obama.  A majority of voters, however, say they “will not be sending a message about the president with their vote.” 

This runs counter to the narrative that 2018 will be a “blue wave election.”  Looking back at the last four Midterms, there were more voters motivated to send a message to the sitting president in all but one.  In Spring 2014, 30% of voters said they were going to vote to send a message of opposition to Mr. Obama.  Democrats then lost 13 House seats and 9 Senate seats.  In October 2010, 30% of voters said they were voting to send a message of opposition to the president, and Democrats lost 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats.  In November 2006, 31% of voters said they were voting to send message of opposition to Mr. Bush, and Republicans lost 30 House seats and 6 Senate seats.  When Republicans gained 8 House seats and 2 Senate seats in 2002, only 15% of voters that October said they would be voting to send a message of opposition to Mr. Bush.

Democrats have yet to find a unifying coherent message other than their hatred for President Trump.  These numbers show that message is not taking hold nor is it motivating their voters as they intend.

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
July 18, 2019 |
Polling News
How campaigns spend money is as important as how much they raise. ...
Placeholder polling news
July 11, 2019 |
Polling News
A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll found that President Donald Trump’s overall job approval rating is buoyed by the economy.  According to the poll, 44% of adults approve of the job Mr. Trump is doing overall. ...
Placeholder polling news
June 27, 2019 |
Polling News
As Democrats watched the first pair of debates, a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll shows most of these voters are not fully tuned in: just 35% say they’re paying close attention to the primary.  ...
Placeholder polling news
June 20, 2019 |
Polling News
A Kaiser Family Foundation survey found Republicans and Independents have a better understanding of Medicare-for-All than do Democrats. ...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance