Polling News

Post-Verdict Polling

June 06, 2024

According to a Fivethirtyeight.com analysis of four different polls, post-verdict surveys show a slight advantage for President Biden in head-to-head matchups, but barely with the shift due to voters moving to Biden, not leaving Donald Trump.

By The Numbers:

  • Of the four polls, Biden gained two points in two surveys, gained one point in another, and stayed flat in the fourth.  

  • Biden gained voters in all of the post-verdict polling, while Trump’s share of vote didn’t change in two, gained a point in one, and lost a point in the final one. 

The Bottom Line: While only time will tell how durable these modest changes are, they show each side’s partisans will rally to their corners with a point movement to Biden. The unknown lies with the undecided and independent and “lean” voters. Whether Biden sees more of them moving into his column or whether Trump wins them over as the New York verdict appears in the rear-view mirror is yet to be seen.

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