Polling News

Trump Moving in on Biden’s Coalition

July 04, 2024

There’s been much anticipation about post-debate polls to see what movement there’s been after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance one week ago. The New York Times/Sienna poll released yesterday has justified panicked Democrats. Donald Trump leads Biden with likely voters (49%-43%) in a head-to-head matchup, and 42%-37% when third party candidates are included. The crosstabs show Trump is now tapping into key demographics that have long been part of the Democratic coalition–younger voters and Hispanics– as well as white non-college educated voters, the suburbs, and independents.

By The Numbers:

  • On a ballot with third party candidates, Trump and Biden are tied with voters 18-29 years old (34%-34%) and over 65 years old (43%-43%). Trump is winning voters 30-44 (39%-36%) and 45-64 years old (48%-33%).

  • Trump and Biden are now tied with Hispanics at 36% each. Trump is winning white voters 49%-34%, and Biden is winning black voters 62%-12%. Trump is winning the “other” demographic (Asian, etc.) 34%-31%. 

  • Trump is winning white, non-college educated voters 60%-24%. Many of these are blue collar union voters who’ve long voted Democrat. Biden is winning white college-educated voters 49%-33%.  Biden is winning non-white college educated voters 50%-21%. 

  • Trump is closing in on Biden in the suburbs with 38% to Biden’s 40%. Trump is winning rural areas 56%-28% and Biden is winning the cities 46%-29%. 

  • Trump is winning independent voters 38%-35% and more of his base as well, taking 89% of Republicans while Biden is only winning 82% of Democrats. 

The Bottom Line: These latest numbers show that Trump is winning that persuasion contest right now – in large part because Biden is losing it. If Trump can hold on to a lead with suburban voters, younger voters, non-college educated voters, Hispanics and independents, he has an opportunity to flip states that have long been blue like Nevada, Michigan, and New Mexico. If the Trump campaign really wants to make November a rout, they’ll focus on white college-educated voters that can help flip states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Virginia. 

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