Polling News

Looking Ahead

August 17, 2023

New polling from the Associated Press and NORC at the University of Chicago says a majority of Americans will not vote for former President Donald Trump if he is the GOP nominee for President in 2024.

Why It Matters: Trump is heavily underwater as general election voters continue moving away from him. The AP’s non-partisan polling provides a frame of reference for voters factoring electability into their decision-making process ahead of the GOP nomination fight.

By The Numbers:

  • 55% of Americans said that would definitely not support the former President in 2024. There is a net 64% of Americans standing against Trump in 2024 when you combine that 55% with another 11% who say they would probably not support.
  • 69% of Americans do not want the former president to run again in 2024 while 75% oppose President Biden seeking reelection.
  • In evaluating the legal cases against the former President, 53% of Americans believe he committed a crime in the classified documents case, 51% in the Georgia case, 47% in the events of Jan. 6, and 34% in the case of paying hush money to Stormy Daniels – in all four cases double digits are also registered to the belief his actions were unethical, but not illegal.

 

While the former president sees growing support from his base surrounding each indictment, nearly 40% of Republicans believe he engaged in either illegal or unethical conduct in all four cases. The question remains whether the continued controversy will ultimately help or hinder the former president in the GOP nomination battle.

The Bottom Line: Putting personality aside, the broader public believes the former president engaged in illegal or unethical conduct in multiple cases, most if not all of which will be likely be tried before the Nov. 2024 election. Republicans, especially in the early primary states that set the tone for the nomination contest, should consider the implications of a Trump candidacy upon their desired results in 2024 and make deliberate decisions to determine whether this will be an election focused on the future or one that continues litigating questions from the past. 

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
April 25, 2024 |
Polling News
A recent poll from the Pew Research Center found that if the election were held today, most voters who turned out in 2020 would show up for the same candidate in 2024, while voter discouragement with both candidates continues to be a problem for both Bide...
Placeholder polling news
April 18, 2024 |
Polling News
A new New York Times/Sienna poll found Donald Trump might be benefitting from the nostalgia former presidents experience after they leave office. ...
Placeholder polling news
April 11, 2024 |
Polling News
Gallup finds that the enthusiasm for voting in the 2024 presidential election is slightly higher compared to this point in most of the last six presidential elections.  ...
Placeholder polling news
April 04, 2024 |
Polling News
Donald Trump has a slight advantage over Joe Biden in seven swing states (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI), according to a new Wall Street Journal poll.  ...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance