Polling News

GOP Turnout Advantage in 2022

August 03, 2023

A recent study from the Pew Research Center found that even though 2022 was a mixed bag for Republicans, they took control of the U.S. House of Representatives in large part because of their strength in higher turnout compared to Democrats.

Why It Matters: There is always a debate whether an election is a persuasion or a base election. These findings show that Republicans won the House because they turned out more of their base voters, not because they persuaded more Democrats and Independents to vote Republican.  

By The Numbers:

  • Overall, 68% of those who voted in 2020 showed up in 2022. 
  • Of those voters, Donald Trump voters turned out at a higher rate (71%) than Joe Biden voters (67%). 
  • Those voters mostly stayed within party lines. Only 10% of 2022 voters defected from their 2020 presidential party vote. Ninety-seven percent of those who voted for Trump in 2020 stuck with Republicans in 2022, and 93% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 stuck with a Democrat in 2022.  

The Bottom Line: Looking ahead to 2024, there is an opportunity to not only win the turnout battle again, but persuade swing voters, too. While our politics have become more partisan, there are still swing states and districts where victory hinges on the margins. Early identification, followed by brand awareness, persuasion, and a solid get-out-the-vote operations will be critical in 2024, especially in states where down ballot candidates must run ahead of the top of the ticket.

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