The RealClearPolitics.com polling aggregate finds 60.3% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, compared to just 29.4% who it’s on the right track. By comparison, on Election Day 2012, that number was 54.1%; in 2016 62.2%, and in 2020 61.5%. Looking at historic NBC News polling, 76% of Americans said the country was on the wrong track on Election Day 2008, and 47% said the same in 2004. In every election over the last 20 years, the White House changed from one party to the other when 55% or more Americans believed the country was on the wrong track. Americans are looking for change this election, but which candidate do they view as the change agent? In the six key battlegrounds, it’s a mixed picture, according to the latest CNN poll.
By The Numbers:
Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris (49%-44%) in just one of six battleground states–Arizona. There voters believe Trump “can bring the kind of change the country needs” (49%-40%) and even more believe Trump “has clear policy plans to solve the country’s problems” (46%-34%)
In states where Trump trails Harris, he is weaker on these change agent attributes. Harris leads Trump in Michigan (48%-43%) and more voters believe she can bring the change the country needs (46%-42%). Michiganders are split on which candidate has the policies to solve the country’s problems (42%-39%). In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by nine points (50%-44%) and more voters believe she can bring change (46%-43%). Voters are again split on who has the better policies (40%-41%).
Nevada and Georgia are up for grabs, with Harris leading Trump by just a point in each (48%-47%). Trump and Harris are tied on the change question (44%-44%) in Georgia, but Trump has the advantage on policies (46%-39%). Trump leads on both questions in Nevada (+7 on change; +11 on policies), a sign this state could trend the former president’s way.
The Bottom Line: For the sitting vice president to even be in the running as the “change agent” in an year where voters want change is truly astounding. In last night’s debate, Harris did a good job of pushing the message that it is “time to turn the page,” painting Trump as the de facto incumbent. As these numbers show, voters don’t want the policy positions of the Biden Administration or Democrat Party. Even in CNN’s snap poll following the debate, more voters believe Trump will be better on the economy and immigration–the two top issues this election. Voters believe Trump’s policies will solve the country’s problems, but don’t yet believe he’ll bring change. Trump must take that mantle back and remind voters every day that Harris will bring more of the same that put our country in the position it is today.
