Polling News

Third Party Spoiler

June 02, 2016

Together, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein took about 1.35% of the presidential vote total in 2012, somewhat short of Ralph Nader’s impressive 2.54% in 2000.  Some analysts speculate today’s presumptive Republican and Democratic nominees’ high negative ratings make 2016 a promising year for a third party candidate.  Judging by recent polling, they may be right.

The March 23 Monmouth University poll had Hillary Clinton at 42%; Donald Trump at 34%; Gary Johnson at 11%; and “Other candidate” at 1%.  Five percent were undecided.  The May 17 Fox News poll had Ms. Clinton at 39%; Mr. Trump at 42%; Mr. Johnson at 10%; and 3% undecided.  Ms. Clinton was at 38%; Mr. Trump at 35%; and Mr. Johnson was again at 10% in the May 23 Morning Consult poll while the percentage of those undecided was 17%.

Who is hurt the most by the strength of third party candidates?  Evidence suggests it is Mr. Trump.  He loses in two out of the three matchups where Mr. Johnson locks in at least ten percent, while Ms. Clinton loses only once.  If Mr. Trump wants to a better outcome, he will need to convince a significant number of undecided voters they should side with him rather than the alternatives.

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
July 09, 2020 |
Polling News
Despite the growth in isolationist sentiments in recent years, Americans still believe the United States should play a leading role in world affairs. ...
Placeholder polling news
July 02, 2020 |
Polling News
Americans have been unhappy with the country’s direction for some time, according to recent polls. ...
Placeholder polling news
June 25, 2020 |
Polling News
While the total number of voters who vote by mail is relatively small overall, it has increased steadily over the last six presidential elections, according to data compiled by Pew Research Center. ...
Placeholder polling news
June 18, 2020 |
Polling News
Is it too early to predict which states will decide the 2020 Presidential Election? Fivethirtyeight.com examined the Cook Political Report’s June predictions for the last four presidential elections to see how accurate they were five months out from the e...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance