My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions

January 07, 2016

Continuing a tradition, here is a look back at my predictions for 2015—hits and misses—and fresh prognostications for the New Year. Of last year’s 27 prophecies, I got nine wrong. There was no Supreme Court vacancy, nor did the high court prohibit ObamaCare patients in states without exchanges from receiving federal subsidies.

Although the House and Senate passed budget resolutions, lawmakers did not approve most appropriations bills before Oct. 1. Nor did President Obama veto any, despite his frequent threats. Instead, Senate Democrats filibustered because Republicans proposed spending too little.

There was more populist anger on the right (with Trump at 35% in Wednesday’s Real Clear Politics average) than on the left (with Sanders at 32%). And the GOP front-runner (The Donald) cracked 30% in September, not 25%, as I had predicted.

Because of turmoil in the House, congressional Republicans failed to offer a governing conservative vision, though their budget resolutions required tough votes on entitlements and tax reform.

The Seahawks didn’t win the Super Bowl, losing to the Patriots. None of my Oscar picks—“American Sniper,” Benedict Cumberbatch and Clint Eastwood—won a statuette.

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