Articles

The Donald Doesn't Have A Lock – Yet

February 25, 2016
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Donald Trump scored a very impressive win in Nevada, taking 45.9% and 14 of the state’s 30 delegates to the GOP convention. But the Republican nomination is far from settled. After four contests, only 133 of the convention’s 2,472 delegates have been selected. 

It’s important to put Nevada in context. Caucuses draw a smaller turnout than primaries and 75,216—17.8% of the state’s 423,308 Republicans—turned out. While the number of voters was higher than in previous Silver State caucuses, it would have required 128,685 Nevada Republicans voting to match Iowa’s turnout.

After carrying 24.3% in Iowa, 35.3% in New Hampshire and 32.5% in South Carolina, Mr. Trump hit a new high Tuesday. Is he consolidating Republicans? Perhaps, but a single caucus victory does not necessarily a consolidation make. 

None of the 12 Republican hopefuls who have dropped out of the race has endorsed Mr. Trump. The Donald’s trademark insults, more pungent and personal than run-of-the-mill campaign attacks, make it difficult for those whom he ridiculed, and their supporters, to rally to him.

The choices made by late-deciding voters would be a sign of consolidation, but in South Carolina Mr. Trump drew only 17% of those who made up their mind in the final week of the campaign. Among the 30% in Nevada who decided in the final week, Sen. Marco Rubio carried 42%, far more than any candidate.

In the eight February polls of the states that vote between March 1 and March 8, Mr. Trump takes an average of 32.3%. Sen. Ted Cruz and Mr. Rubio take 21% and 19.9% respectively, with the remaining 26.8% split among other candidates and undecideds. Mr. Trump is supported by better than three of every 10 Republicans, but some 65% aren’t in his camp.

To read more visit WSJ.com

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