Polling News

Early Look At 2018 Generic Ballot

June 08, 2017

Early Look At 2018 Generic Ballot: Democrats have a 7.2-point advantage in FiveThirtyEight.com’s 2018 generic ballot tracker, standing at 44.1% to Republicans’ 36.9%.  According to FiveThirtyEight.com’s analysis of generic ballot results since 1942, the standing of the president’s party 18 months before a midterm election is generally close to their final vote margin.  If this trend holds, as it often does for the party out of power, Democrats’ lead today may translate into a roughly eight-point lead in the national House vote next November.  According to generic ballot data from the eighteen midterms since 1946, the final numbers were only off the final margins by an average of two percentage points.  

The Democrats’ lead today does not automatically mean they will win the national House vote by a large enough margin to gain control of the House next year, however.  There are just 23 Republican-held House seats in districts won by Clinton, offset somewhat by twelve Democrat-held House seats in districts won by Trump.  By comparison, in 2010 Democrats had to defend 48 seats in districts McCain won.  Republicans can successfully defend their majority by delivering on election promises and minimizing retirements. Running strong candidates and campaigns in these competitive districts will be key.

###

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
January 18, 2018 |
Polling News
This week marks one year since President Donald Trump’s inauguration.  ...
Placeholder polling news
January 11, 2018 |
Polling News
As the Washington Post pointed out, job numbers for President Donald Trump’s first year in office were not just good, but very good.  ...
Placeholder polling news
January 04, 2018 |
Polling News
A majority (71%) of Americans are hopeful about how the new year will go for them personally, according to a Survey Monkey poll reported by Axios. ...
Placeholder polling news
December 28, 2017 |
Polling News
Today Republicans are at the lowest standing a year out from a Midterm Election than they have been in two decades, according to CNN polling.  Only 38% of voters say they are more likely to support the Republican Party next year, while 56% say they are mo...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance