Polling News

Where Hillary Clinton Stands With The Obama Coalition

August 24, 2016

Democrats hope their 2016 candidate, Hillary Clinton, will be able to recreate the “Obama Coalition” with strong support from the African American, Latino, college-educated, women, and independent voters that propelled Barack Obama to the White House in 2008 and, to a lesser extent, kept him there in 2012.  In a General Election match-up, how does Mrs. Clinton stack up against Mr. Obama so far with these key groups?

In 2008 against Senator John McCain, Mr. Obama won 95% of African Americans, 67% of Latinos, 66% of 18-29 year olds, 56% of women, 52% of Independents, and 50% of college-graduates.  The only group with which he improved when he ran against Mitt Romney in 2012 was Latinos, receiving 71% of the vote (+4 from 2008).  His performance among the other “Obama Coalition” voter groups declined.  He won 93% of the African Americans (-2); 60% of 18-29 year-olds (-6); 55% of women (-1); 45% of Independents (-7); and 47% of college-graduates (-3).

Mrs. Clinton does not reach Mr. Obama’s 2012 levels with these groups now.  According to a recent LA Times/USC poll, Mrs. Clinton wins only 82% of African Americans, 56% of Latinos, 51% of women, 51% of college-graduates, and only 35% of Independent voters – a group Mr. Trump has been running even or ahead of Mrs. Clinton.  Mrs. Clinton has almost eighty days to solidify her support with these key demographic groups, but she has a long way to go to match Mr. Obama’s performance.

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