Polling News

Economy Boosts Trump Over Potential Opponents

January 30, 2020

The Iowa caucus is four days away.  While its results will have a big impact on the Democratic presidential contest, a new poll from ABC News/Washington Post shows that regardless who wins this first contest, President Donald Trump is in a strong position for reelection.

Among registered voters, the leaders in the Democratic field take between 45%-49% to Mr. Trump’s 46%-48%.  Joe Biden polls the strongest against Mr. Trump, 50% to 46%.  Mike Bloomberg is the second strongest with 49% to Mr. Trump’s 46%.  Bernie Sanders comes in third, besting Mr. Trump by two points, 49% to 49%, and Amy Klobuchar leads by only a point, 48% to 47%.  Elizabeth Warren is tied with Mr. Trump, 48%/48%, and Pete Buttigieg loses to the president by three, 45% to 48%.

What is the driver of Mr. Trump’s electoral strength?  The ABC News/Washington Post poll says it’s the booming economy.  In 2016, 63% of Americans said they worried about maintaining their standard of living.  Today, only 43% say they are concerned about maintaining their standard of living. While the daily news cycle focuses on impeachment, the real stories are that the Democratic field has not united behind one wing of their party and the nation’s prosperity is strong.  2020 will test James Carville’s statement that “It’s the economy, stupid.”  For now, the nation’s strong economy is Mr. Trump’s greatest strength as he runs for reelection. 

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