A recent survey from the Pew Research Center found 66% of voters say it “really matters” which party wins Congress after this fall’s Midterms. Seventy-five percent of voters supporting Democrats say control of Congress “really matters” and 74% of voters supporting GOP candidates say the same – a virtual tie. There are differences, however, between select demographic groups that are key to each party’s success.
Sixty-nine percent of male voters say control of Congress “really matters,” compared to 64% of female voters. Only 56% of Hispanic voters and 57% of Black voters believe the control of Congress “really matters,” compared to 70% of White voters. Just 48% of 18-29 year-old voters and 59% of 30-49 year-old voters believe control of Congress “really matters,” while 70% of 50-64 year-old voters and 83% of voters 65 years-old and up say the same. There are more college-educated voters focused on the control of Congress. Seventy-six percent of voters with a postgraduate education, 71% of college grads, 63% of voters with some college education, and 63% of voters with a high school education or less believe control of Congress “really matters.”
These numbers suggest voters that generally turn out for Republican candidates are slightly more concerned about which party controls Congress after November’s elections. The Democratic Party may not have yet convinced key demographics – such as females, Hispanic voters, and younger voters – that Democrats need to win and that control of Congress is a rebuke to President Donald Trump. College educated voters are the exception. They continue leaning more Democratic and do believe control of Congress matters. A number of races, especially in districts and states with large suburban, college-educated communities, could be decided by these swing voters.