According to CNN/ORC poll, 58% of viewers thought Hillary Clinton won Monday’s debate, while 32% said Donald Trump won. How have presidential candidates fared after their first debates in the past? According to historic polls, viewers said the Democrati...
As I wrote in last week’s Wall Street Journal, “Republicans may well hold the Senate—though it will probably come down to a few thousand votes, in a handful of states, and decided very late on election night.” FiveThirtyEight.com has just offered two meas...
Unsurprisingly, Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump with Latino voters in key swing states now. What is interesting, however, is that neither candidate is matching the Latino vote share their party’s presidential candidates received in these states i...
Do live-interview polls and nonlive polls garner the same results? Not according to recent Fivethirtyeight.com analysis. It revealed that when only live polls are considered, Hillary Clinton has an 86% chance of winning with 354.1 Electoral votes and a +7...
When Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton became their party’s nominee, each faced the challenge of uniting their party behind them. How have the presidential hopefuls unified their party? The most effective argument so far has been that voters should not s...
Democrats hope their 2016 candidate, Hillary Clinton, will be able to recreate the “Obama Coalition” with strong support from the African American, Latino, college-educated, women, and independent voters that propelled Barack Obama to the White House in 2...
President Barack Obama once promised, “If you like your health care plan, you can keep your health care plan” under ObamaCare. But that’s hardly been the case as millions lost their existing coverage.
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Donald Trump believes his path to the White House depends on winning white working-class voters, specifically those in northeast states like Maine and Pennsylvania and in Midwest states like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Conventional wisdom suggests whi...
